May 25, 2009

Chairman Mauer has been eating his Wheaties

Joe Mauer of the Twins is on fire.

We already know the guy can hit (with batting titles in 2006 and 2008) and I don't want to jinx him with this post but,

Mauer's previous best home run season was 2006 when he hit 13 in 608 at-bats -- that's one home run in every 46.77 at-bats.

In 2001 when Barry Bonds hit his 73 home runs, he had 476 official at-bats, making it a home run for every 6.52 at-bats.

Mauer missed the first month of baseball so he has less than half the at-bats he should have, but so far he has 11 home runs in 81 at-bats (including a solo pinch-hit home run in today's loss against Boston -- after being hit on the wrist last night by a pitch). That's a home run for every 7.36 at-bats.

Morneau, who is supposed to be the Twins' power hitter has one more home run than Mauer in 169 at-bats.

And just for reference, Roger Maris hit 61 home runs in 590 at-bats (one in 9.67 at-bats) and Mark McGwire hit 70 home runs in 509 at-bats (one in 7.27).

Granted, it's pretty unlikely Mauer will keep this pace up (although who knows, his first hit when he returned this season was a home run) but right now it's pretty fun to watch (even if the Twins don't have the pitching to stay above .500).

Check out his upper-deck bomb last night here.

Posted by alangage at May 25, 2009 04:26 PM

Comments

To understand the freakiness that is Mauer's 2009 season, it helps to understand two things: 1) How little Mauer hit homers before this season, and 2) How amazing his other numbers (i.e. batting average & OPS) are at the same time. Coming into this season Mauer had 44 home runs in his career (an average of one dinger per 46.80 at-bats; about 1 every 13 games). The Phillies' Ryan Howard, who started his career the same season as Mauer, has hit more than 44 home runs in EVERY SEASON IN WHICH HE'S PLAYED MORE THAN 60% OF THE GAMES. Howard averages a home run every 11.87 at-bats (one every 3.3 games), and has 12 homers this season in twice as many games as Mauer (who has 11). So Mauer has hit one-fifth of his career home runs in this season alone, and has only played in the equivalent of one-eighth of a season. He's on pace for something like 77 home runs over a span of 162 games, which would come close to doubling the amount of round-trippers he had coming into 2009. So when you compare him to a guy that religiously hits 45+ homers every season and he's keeping pace in half the amount of at-bats, it's pretty amazing.

But I think the best comparison you can make of Mauer to Ryan Howard is the one that appropriately shows the single dimension (power hitting) that is Howard's offensive game and really highlights how multi-dimensional Mauer's game is. This season Howard has 172 at-bats and 52 strikeouts. That's an average of a strikeout every 3.31 at-bats. That means he strikes out at least once a game. He has almost five times as many strikeouts as home runs this season. Mauer has 11 strikeouts (the same as his total of 11 home runs) this season. His homerun to strikeout ratio is 1:1. And he's batting .444 to Howard's .262 (as a side note, the most staggering stat of all has got to be career strikeouts; Mauer has 244 strikeouts in 2140 at-bats, Howard has 744 in 2243 at-bats).

If Mauer can keep up this power hitting pace for a while and still keep making good contact, he could easily be the most sought-after player in the free agent market at the end of next year when the Twins have to give him up since they won't be able to afford him.

Posted by: siskow at May 26, 2009 02:04 PM

Siskow said something that made me look up the strike season: players who participated in the 1995 spring training after the strike year (and before the strike ended) were considered "replacement" players and didn't appear in any MLB official merchandise including video games.
This includes World Series team winners Shane Spencer, Damian Miller and Kevin Millar, who couldn't appear on any commemorative merchandise.
Other victims include Tony Gwynn (who was hitting .394), Ken Griffey, Jr (who had 40 home runs) and Frank Thomas who was also going nuts.
Also, the Expos who had a record of 74-40 when the strike ended the season.

Posted by: Andy at May 26, 2009 02:09 PM

I'd be much more likely to eat a delicious $5 footlong sub sandwich at a Subway restaurant if Mauer were their spokesperson instead of Ryan Howard.

Back when he was a Twin, Torii Hunter was quoted as saying that Mauer would become a great power hitter once Mauer developed his man-strength. I guess Joey Mauer is becoming a man right before our eyes!

Posted by: Cody at May 27, 2009 09:35 AM

Posted by: Andy at May 28, 2009 02:16 PM

For those who care:

In 2001 Barry Bonds hit a home run per every 9.10 plate appearances.

In 1998 Mark McGwire hit one home run per every 9.73 plate appearances.

In 2009 Joe Mauer has hit one home per every 9.90 plate appearances.

Why measure in plate appearances? It's a better metric for a hitter's opportunity than at-bats because plate appearances measure every time a batter steps into the batter's box while at-bats do not include walks or hit-by-pitches or if the batter is at-bat while a baserunner makes a third out on the basepath.

Plate appearances are the bomb!

Nerdy.

Posted by: Cody at May 28, 2009 04:31 PM

I thought about that, too. But which takes into consideration more hittable pitches, an at-bat, a plate appearance, or neither?

Posted by: Andy at May 28, 2009 05:10 PM

The andylangager.net jinx? Since this post, Mauer is 5-for-18 (.277) with no home runs. And he started 1-for-10 the first three games after the post. Way to go Andy.

Please type this: Joe is human (required):

Posted by: siskow at June 1, 2009 10:49 AM

Joe Mauer stinks and will probably end up with a .197 and 12 home runs on the year.

Posted by: andy at June 1, 2009 12:49 PM

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